Q4 2026 Renewal Readiness: What the Latest Market Data Means
Last updated: September 27, 2026 · By Chip Smith, CEO, Centered Partners
If your commercial program renews in Q4 or on January 1, your broker should already be working on it. The latest quarterly data is Q2 2026, from the Council of Insurance Agents & Brokers and Marsh, and I'll update this post when Q3 is out. Here's what it says and how to use it before your renewal.
In March I wrote that 2026 would be a market of contrasts (Q1 2026 update).
Two quarters later, the contrast is wider.
The total bill, though, barely moved for most mid-size companies. The Council of Insurance Agents & Brokers (CIAB) found Q2 premiums down 1.9% for medium accounts, 0.5% for small accounts, and 2.0% across all account sizes (CIAB, Aug 18, 2026). The story is underneath that average.
Property is getting cheaper. Liability isn't. The risk for owners is letting one hide the other.
To be precise, the split is property versus auto and umbrella/excess casualty. Some liability lines are flat or down: CIAB found D&O, employment practices, and workers' comp premiums fell, and Marsh has D&O rates up just 1% (Marsh, Q2 2026, released July 23, 2026).
What changed in Q2
One thing to know first: Marsh measures rate changes at renewal, while CIAB measures premium changes, which also move with exposure, limits, and retentions.
Here's the rate data from Marsh's Global Insurance Market Index for the US (Marsh, Q2 2026, released July 23, 2026):
- Property rates: down 13%, the eighth straight quarterly decline. Catastrophe-exposed programs with more than $1 million in premium fell 20%. Non-catastrophe programs under $1 million fell 10%.
- Casualty rates: up 7%, and up 11% excluding workers' comp. US casualty rates have risen every quarter since 2019.
- Umbrella and excess rates: up 11% on an absolute basis and up 15% risk-adjusted. Some insurers capped capacity at $10 million per risk because of the US litigation environment.
- Auto liability rates: Marsh says double-digit increases were common.
- Cyber rates: down 2%. Rates have declined since Q2 2023.
- D&O rates: up 1% after a 3% decline in the prior quarter.
Marsh's rates reflect the segment mix of its client portfolio, so I also look at CIAB's premium data. For Q2, commercial property premiums fell 6.3%. Umbrella premiums rose 5.3%, the 35th straight quarterly increase, and commercial auto premiums rose 4.5% (CIAB, Aug 18, 2026).
One line in that CIAB report is worth reading twice: carriers "attempted to offset the increases that market conditions required in umbrella and commercial auto with decreases elsewhere, primarily in workers compensation and commercial property."
Here's the trap
Picture a hypothetical renewal. Your total premium comes back 4% lower, and it looks like a win.
Then you look line by line. Property premium is down 15%. Umbrella premium is up 12%. Your umbrella limit is lower than last year because the carrier cut its capacity. And the deductible you raised in 2023 to hold premium down is still sitting there.
That's a composite number doing what composite numbers do.
And don't assume the property window stays open. Q3 data is on the way, and Marsh's John Donnelly says current conditions are likely to persist "absent a severe northern hemisphere storm season or string of major natural catastrophes" (Marsh, Q2 2026, released July 23, 2026). A stretch of big catastrophes could narrow the discount.
A soft property market is the best leverage owners have had in years. Spend it on purpose.
How to use the split
1. Re-market property, even if you like your carrier. Marsh reports insurers easing scrutiny, lowering submission and valuation requirements, and offering policy enhancements to win business (Marsh, Q2 2026, released July 23, 2026). You won't see that on a renewal nobody shopped.
2. Take back what you gave up in the hard market. Lower deductibles. Restored sublimits. Better wind and hail terms. Better business interruption wording.
3. Update your values. Softer pricing is a chance to fix underinsurance without paying a hard-market premium for it. An outdated replacement-cost number hurts you at claim time, not at renewal.
4. Move savings into liability limits. If property drops $40,000, ask what $40,000 buys in umbrella or excess limits. Expect some work to find it. Marsh says capacity for unsupported and stand-alone umbrella placements was constrained, and umbrella capacity went mainly to support primary casualty towers. Some clients reassessed their limits and explored alternative risk transfer and captives (Marsh, Q2 2026, released July 23, 2026). Ask whether a captive fits your program. With nuclear verdicts at record levels in 2025 (Marathon Strategies, Aug 18, 2026; our separate post covers this), a thin umbrella is where the real exposure sits.
5. Package auto thoughtfully. Marsh notes auto outcomes sometimes improved when it was packaged with attractive supporting lines, mainly workers' comp (Marsh, Q2 2026, released July 23, 2026). Workers' comp, Marsh says, continued to see the most capacity and the highest levels of competition.
6. Bring data. Marsh says clients with strong loss performance, transparent data, and real risk controls got better outcomes (Marsh, Q2 2026, released July 23, 2026). Fleet telematics, safety programs, and contract risk transfer are underwriting inputs, not paperwork.
For commercial real estate owners: property is your biggest line, so this is your market. The caveat is on the casualty side. In umbrella and excess, Marsh says underwriting tightened around emerging exposures, "including ultra-processed foods, per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS), and human trafficking," contributing to higher costs and retentions and driving volatility "notably for real estate programs" (Marsh, Q2 2026, released July 23, 2026). Look at the whole program, not just the property rate.
Questions to ask before your next renewal
- Did we re-market property this year, and what did the market actually offer?
- What did we give up since 2022 (deductibles, sublimits, terms) that we can win back now?
- When were our building and contents values last updated?
- Where is our umbrella limit today versus two years ago, and what would another $5 or $10 million cost?
- What does each line do year over year, not just the total?
- Is our auto placed in the way that gets the best outcome?
- Is our loss data and risk-control story ready before underwriters ask for it?
- Are we starting at least 120 days out?
If you want a line-by-line read of your program, from a team that's sat on both the buying and producing side of this, start a conversation with us.
Property is on sale. Liability isn't. Know which one you're shopping.
This post is general information, not insurance or legal advice. Rates and terms vary by risk, location, and loss history. Nothing here promises any specific coverage or price. Coverage is governed by your actual policy.
Ready to explore this further?
Schedule a confidential conversation with Centered Partners.